Who Is He? Nate Silver … More

July 2, 2016

So I posted Who Is He? Nate Silver on Thursday, June 30. In it I included this paragraph:

FiveThirtyEight.com posted its first general election analysis, Who Will Win the Presidency?, within the last couple of days. It says Hillary Clinton, has a 79.2% chance of winning. Unpacking this analysis matters. First, a 79.2% chance of winning does not mean Ms. Clinton will win 79.2% of the votes. Rather, it means an election, held 100 times, would see Ms. Clinton winning about 80 times.

On July 1, in the evening, regular reader SC wrote me privately—for sure, because he didn’t want to embarrass me—about my statement. Paraphrasing his several words, he wrote “Wrong!” And, after checking in with my

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“Who is he?” Nate Silver

July 1, 2016

“Who is he?” Nate Silver is the person to whom the Facebook poster referred. I had commented on a Friend / Trump supporter’s post—I do have Trump supporter friends, really—and the poster’s friend responded. On another post someone asked about Nate Silver, I responded, and in the chain this comment appeared: “Every poll is different, and it’s way too early anyhow.”

Nate Silver is a statistician / writer. He runs FifeThirtyEight.com, and got famous when the blog resided at the New York Times. Mr. Silver also wrote The Signal and the Noise, which carries the subtitle: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t!

Mr. Silver called the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. In 2008 he was

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