So I posted Who Is He? Nate Silver on Thursday, June 30. In it I included this paragraph:
FiveThirtyEight.com posted its first general election analysis, Who Will Win the Presidency?, within the last couple of days. It says Hillary Clinton, has a 79.2% chance of winning. Unpacking this analysis matters. First, a 79.2% chance of winning does not mean Ms. Clinton will win 79.2% of the votes. Rather, it means an election, held 100 times, would see Ms. Clinton winning about 80 times.
On July 1, in the evening, regular reader SC wrote me privately—for sure, because he didn’t want to embarrass me—about my statement. Paraphrasing his several words, he wrote “Wrong!” And, after checking in with my