Donald J. Trump, Goner
I have a PredictIt account. PredictIt offers legalized betting on political events. Fun it is, and it’s legal because smart people study the predictive power of crowds.
Whether “Donald Trump shall be president of the United States at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 31, 2018” is the bet, and I have the No position. (The rules are very precise.) If I cashed out now my profit pays for most of a night on the town with LB, which includes drinks, shared fish and chips, tax and the large tip at our neighborhood bar. And If I hang on and he’s gone by the time the ball drops next in Times Square I’ll be the smiling guy, bigly, and there’ll be enough money to pay for some City Life.
My position has languished at about 20 for weeks. As I write more than 10,000 contracts have traded today and the NO position is up 25% for the day. The crowd speaks, and it says: Donald J. Trump, Goner!
I can’t imagine Mr. Trump in the White House on the morning of January 20, 2021 and, obviously, my money says it’ll end by 12/31/2018. Frankly, though, I expect we will be saying Goodbye Donald very soon. Very soon!
Why? Michael Cohen. Mr. Trump’s life has revolved around the law. USA Today reported almost two years ago that Mr. Trump and his entities have been involved in 3500 lawsuits. For a developer / branding magnate, that’s a lot of lawsuits. Truly! And, on top of the lawsuits there are the business deals, the bankruptcies, the payoffs to the ladies, etc.
Mr. Cohen knows much about his famous client, who surely kept him very busy for many years. Add to the mix Mr. Trump’s business practices, and the stuff Mr. Cohen’s going to know is bad stuff. Now, throw in the fact that Mr. Cohen has lots of legal troubles of his own because his ethics make him a good fit for his famous client. And, finally, there’s New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who can prosecute Mr. Cohen for his bad acts in New York even if Mr. Trump offers Mr. Cohen a pardon.
Directly or indirectly, Mr. Trump can fire Robert Mueller. He can fire U.S. Attorneys who, using Mr. Cohen’s information and testimony, prosecute people. He can shred the federal criminal justice system. But he can’t touch Mr. Schneiderman and a state court prosecution. And Mr. Cohen, if he’s got anything on Mr. Trump, will have information about violations of New York state law. (Indictments while we have POTUS Trump? Not likely. After? In a New York minute.)
I know the Russia investigation matters. (McClatchy tells us, today, that Mr. Mueller has evidence that Mr. Cohen was in Prague during the 2016 campaign. Mr. Cohen has denied being in Prague, and the Steele dossier claims Mr. Cohen met with Russian intelligence officers during the alleged visit. Can you spell c-o-n-n-e-c-t-e-d d-o-t-s?) The notion that a foreign nation can interfere with our elections with such ease should chill up, deeply. That we have a president and a party who seemingly care not a whit about something so evident leaves me deeply depressed.
Still, I think crooked business dealings end this. “Follow the money,” said Deep Throat (maybe)! Mr. Trump’s evident dishonesty and his business dealings over decades will catch up with him. And, while many with whom I disagree will say (and believe forever), “the Clintons are worse,” people can understand dishonest business stuff. Russians doing stuff with Facebook? Not so much.
In closing, what a mess. We’ll get through this, I’m sure, but what an effing mess! And, finally, if you are doubting me about the Trump history, check this link. David Cay Johnston’s got the emes.
P.S. In the next couple of days I will share some basic facts about attorney-client privilege and attorney confidentiality issues.